
Iran's first Israel-reaching missile. Based on North Korean Nodong. 2,500m CEP — inaccurate but mass-use capable.
Tripartite Weapons Systems Analysis — Iran · USA · Israel | 2026

Iran's first Israel-reaching missile. Based on North Korean Nodong. 2,500m CEP — inaccurate but mass-use capable.

Modified Shahab-3 with separating RV for better accuracy. Can reach all of Israel from western Iran.

First Iranian MRBM with precision guidance (fins). Demonstrated in Operation True Promise strikes.

Short-range precision strike. Used against ISIS in Syria 2017. Ideal for US Gulf bases.

Improved Zolfaghar. Underground launch capability demonstrated.

Iran's most capable MRBM. 1,500kg warhead (largest in arsenal). Covers all of Israel and SE Europe. CEP ~30m with terminal guidance.

Mach 13-15 hypersonic glide vehicle. Maneuvering RV defeats most TMD. Arrow-3 and THAAD marginal against it. GAME-CHANGER.

Upgraded Fattah with dual-stage motor and improved terminal maneuverability. Claimed Mach 15. Tested March 2025.

Land-attack cruise missile based on Soviet Kh-55. Hoveizeh (2019) extends range to 1,350km+. Flies at low altitude, radar evasion.

Turbofan-powered LACM. Designed specifically to defeat air defense networks via terrain-hugging.

Loitering munition. Delta-wing, $20,000 unit cost. Saturated Ukrainian and Israeli air defenses. Produced at scale (10,000+). IRGC exports to Russia, Houthis.

Jet-powered variant of Shahed-136. Mach 0.8+, defeats slower interceptors. Infrared signature reduction.

150,000+ rockets and missiles. Fateh-110 precision missiles (CEP 10m). Kornet ATGMs. Radwan special forces (15,000). 40,000 active fighters. Iran's most capable proxy — existential threat to northern Israel.

Burkan-3 ballistic missiles (Riyadh, UAE strikes). Shahed-136 drones. Aquid anti-ship missiles. Red Sea shipping blockade (2023-present): 100+ attacks. Israel strikes 2024-25.

Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, Asaib Ahl al-Haq. 200+ rocket/drone attacks on US forces Iraq/Syria 2023-24. Katyusha, 107mm rockets, Burkan UAVs.

Qassam, M-75, J-80 rockets. October 7, 2023 attack: 1,200 Israelis killed, 250 hostages. Hamas military wing significantly degraded in 2023-24 war but not destroyed.

IRGC had 80,000+ personnel/militias in Syria pre-2024. Assad fall (Dec 2024) collapsed this corridor. Now remnant cells only. Major blow to Iran's 'land bridge' to Hezbollah.

Noor (C-802 copy): sank an Israeli corvette (INS Hanit) in 2006. Qader: 200km range. Nasr-1: coastal defense. Khalij Fars: anti-ship ballistic missile.

20% of world's oil passes through. Iran can mine strait in 48hrs. IRGCN fast-boat swarm (1,000+ vessels). Submarine force (Kilo, Fateh-class). Threat alone moves oil markets 10-20%.

500-1000 small fast boats in mass attack. Overwhelm point-defense systems. 2019: seized UK tanker Stena Impero. 2021+: seized multiple vessels. Harassed US Navy repeatedly.

Russia delivered 4 batteries after sanctions lifted. Effective against F-15/F-16 but limited vs stealth. Partially degraded by Operation Silent Judgment (Dec 2025).

Iranian claim: equivalent to S-400. Independent assessment: S-300PMU-1 level. 4-6 batteries operational. Targets: aircraft, cruise missiles, MRBM warheads.

Khordad-3 shot down US Navy RQ-4 Global Hawk (June 2019) — $130M asset. Mobile, hard to target. Khordad-15 (2019): claimed to defeat stealth.

Designed to intercept ballistic missiles and high-altitude targets. Limited but improving.

Medium-altitude long-endurance. 24hr loiter. Sadid guided munitions. Used extensively in Syria. Iran's Predator equivalent.

Long-range precision kamikaze drone. Jet-powered, low radar cross-section. Can reach Israel from Iran without aerial refueling.

Latest MALE drone. Turboprop engine. 24hr+ endurance. Carries Qaem laser-guided bombs and Almas anti-tank missiles.

IR-6 centrifuge: 10x faster than IR-1. IR-8: 20x. Fordow underground: ~3,000 advanced centrifuges. Natanz: 20,000+ IR-1 + advanced. 90% enrichment confirmed Sep 2025.

90m underground in mountain near Qom. Beyond reach of conventional GBU-57 MOP. Only B83 nuclear bunker buster or GBU-57 salvo could reach. US used it as strike target in May 2025 with partial success.

With 90% enrichment capability and 84kg HEU stockpile: estimated 2-4 weeks to enrich sufficient material for 1 device. Weaponization (miniaturized warhead): 6-12 months additional. Total: ~1 year to deployable weapon.

IRGC-linked APT. Targeted: US defense contractors, Israeli gov networks, Saudi Aramco. Shamoon wiper malware (2012/2017): wiped 35,000 Saudi Aramco computers. 2024: breached Trump campaign servers.

2011: Iran captured CIA RQ-170 Sentinel via GPS spoofing — forced it to land intact. Reverse-engineered stealth drone. Active GPS jamming over Tehran and Strait of Hormuz region.

2021-2025: Multiple attacks on Israeli water infrastructure, hospital systems. 2022: Albania state takedown (Homeland Justice). 2025: Leaked CENTCOM deployment data. Growing SCADA/ICS attack capability.

Noor-1 (2020), Noor-2 (2022), Noor-3 (2023): Low-earth orbit ISR satellites launched by IRGC. Used to track US carrier positions, Israeli military movements. Resolution: ~10m (estimated).

Satellite launch vehicles developed by IRGC. Qased successfully orbited Noor-1. Technology directly transferable to ICBM development (same propulsion, staging). US designates as 'ICBM-capable'.
Simultaneous multi-front: Hezbollah north (150k rockets) + Iran direct (MRBM) + Houthi south + Hamas. Iron Dome / Arrow-3 can be saturated at scale.
Strait of Hormuz closure + proxy harassment of US bases across CENTCOM AOR + cyber attacks on critical infrastructure. Asymmetric approach: never fight US head-on.